All Picks
MLB · MoneylineWon
Atlanta Braves
@
Philadelphia Phillies
Date
Sat, Apr 18
Time
11:15 PM
Venue
Citizens Bank Park
Spread
Braves ML
Odds
+109
Risk
MOD
PICK
Braves ML
+109 · 1 Unit
75%
✅ Winner
Atlanta Braves 3, Philadelphia Phillies 1
+109.00u
The Edge
Atlanta ML at +109 is a clear value play — the better team by record, run differential, team ERA, and ATS performance is available at plus money against a home team that is 2-11 ATS at home and has lost three straight, making this a PICK on the superior side at a favorable price.
Key Factors
Atlanta is +109 on the moneyline despite a 13-7 record (.650 win%) vs Philadelphia's 8-11 (.421) — the market is mispricing team quality
Team ERA gap is massive: Atlanta 2.78 vs Philadelphia 5.14, a 2.36-run difference that is the single largest team-level edge in this dataset
Atlanta ATS record is 12-8 (.600) overall and 5-3 (.625) on the road; Philadelphia is a historically bad 2-11 (.154) ATS at home this season
Atlanta is on a W3 streak including a 9-0 demolition of this same Phillies team yesterday; Philadelphia is on an L3 streak and has been outscored badly in recent games