All Picks
MLB · MoneylineWon
Toronto Blue Jays
@
Arizona Diamondbacks
Date
Sun, Apr 19
Time
12:10 AM
Venue
Chase Field
Spread
Diamondbacks ML
Odds
-126
Risk
MOD
PICK
Diamondbacks ML
-126 · 1 Unit
78%
✅ Winner
Toronto Blue Jays 2, Arizona Diamondbacks 6
+79.37u
The Edge
Gallen's commanding ERA advantage over a struggling Scherzer, Arizona's elite home ATS record, and superior team pitching metrics make the Diamondbacks ML at -126 a clear value play in a favorable price range.
Key Factors
Pitching matchup is lopsided: Gallen at 3.60 ERA vs Scherzer at 9.58 ERA — a 5.98-run differential between starters, well above the 1.5 threshold for a significant edge
Arizona is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games and 16-4 ATS overall (.800), one of the most dominant ATS runs in the league
Home/road splits heavily favor Arizona: Diamondbacks are 6-2 at home SU and 6-2 ATS (.750) at home; Toronto is 1-6 on the road SU and 1-6 ATS (.143)
Team ERA gap: Arizona 3.81 vs Toronto 4.48, with Arizona's WHIP (1.21) significantly better than Toronto's (1.34), and Arizona has allowed fewer opponent OPS (0.693 vs 0.713)