All Picks
MLB · MoneylineLost
Milwaukee Brewers
@
Miami Marlins
Date
Sun, Apr 19
Time
5:40 PM
Venue
loanDepot park
Spread
Brewers ML
Odds
-122
Risk
MOD
PICK
Brewers ML
-122 · 1 Unit
72%
❌ Loss
Milwaukee Brewers 3, Miami Marlins 5
-100.00u
The Edge
The starter ERA gap, road ATS dominance, and active win streak at this exact venue give Milwaukee a clear multi-factor edge at a moderate -122 price that sits in the best EV zone.
Key Factors
Starter ERA edge: Misiorowski 3.32 vs Perez 5.40 — a 2.08-run gap that clears the 1.5+ threshold for a significant pitching edge
Milwaukee is 6-2 ATS (.750) on the road this season vs Miami's 4-8 ATS (.333) at home — a 41.7-point ATS gap
Brewers hold a +1.3 run differential edge and are on a W4 streak vs Miami's L4 streak, including back-to-back wins at loanDepot Park (5-2, 7-5)
Milwaukee team ERA 3.87 vs Miami 4.16, and Brewers' opponents OPS of .701 vs Miami's .668 — Brewers pitching staff is performing at a higher level overall