All Picks
MLB · MoneylineWon
St. Louis Cardinals
@
Houston Astros
Date
Sun, Apr 19
Time
6:10 PM
Venue
Daikin Park
Spread
Cardinals ML
Odds
+123
Risk
MOD
PICK
Cardinals ML
+123 · 1 Unit
72%
✅ Winner
St. Louis Cardinals 7, Houston Astros 5
+123.00u
The Edge
Cardinals ML at +123 offers underdog value backed by a clear pitching edge and superior ATS performance, making this a profitable lean even accounting for Houston's stronger lineup metrics.
Key Factors
Pitcher ERA edge: Liberatore 4.29 vs Burrows 6.55 — a 2.26 ERA delta, well above the 1.5 threshold for a significant lean toward the better starter's team
Cardinals ATS win rate 55.0% vs Astros 36.4% — a +19% ATS edge flagged in the data
Cardinals on W4 streak; Astros on L3 streak, having dropped both games to STL on Apr 18 (5-7 and 4-9)
Cardinals are +123 underdogs — at that price they only need to win ~45% of the time to be profitable, and the data points to a real edge here