All Picks
MLB · MoneylineWon
Detroit Tigers
@
Boston Red Sox
Date
Sun, Apr 19
Time
8:35 PM
Venue
Fenway Park
Spread
Tigers ML
Odds
+119
Risk
MOD
PICK
Tigers ML
+119 · 1 Unit
72%
✅ Winner
Detroit Tigers 6, Boston Red Sox 2
+119.00u
The Edge
Valdez's commanding ERA advantage over a struggling Crochet, combined with Detroit's superior team pitching and underdog plus-money value, makes Tigers ML the clear directional lean despite the road split concern.
Key Factors
Pitcher ERA gap: Valdez at 3.75 vs Crochet at 7.58 — a 3.83-run differential, well above the 1.5 threshold for a significant edge
Detroit ATS last 10: 7-3 (.700) vs Boston's 4-6 (.400) — Tigers running 30% hotter against the spread
Team ERA edge: Detroit 3.34 vs Boston 4.26 — Tigers are the superior pitching team by nearly a full run
Detroit +119 underdog value — only needs ~46% win probability to be profitable, and the data suggests they win this more often than that