All Picks
MLB · MoneylineWon
Atlanta Braves
@
Philadelphia Phillies
Date
Sun, Apr 19
Time
11:20 PM
Venue
Citizens Bank Park
Spread
Braves ML
Odds
+100
Risk
MOD
PICK
Braves ML
+100 · 1 Unit
75%
✅ Winner
Atlanta Braves 4, Philadelphia Phillies 2
+100.00u
The Edge
Atlanta is the clearly superior team by ERA, OPS, run differential, and ATS metrics yet is priced as an underdog at +100 — that pricing inefficiency combined with Philadelphia's historically bad 2-12 home ATS record makes the Braves ML a strong value play.
Key Factors
Atlanta team ERA of 2.70 vs Philadelphia ERA of 4.88 — a 2.18-run gap that is the single largest quality separator in this matchup
Atlanta OPS .798 vs Philadelphia OPS .671 — a .127 gap reflecting a dominant offensive edge
Atlanta 13-8 ATS overall (.619) vs Philadelphia 4-16 ATS (.200) — a 42% gap in ATS win rate, with Atlanta 7-3 last 10 and Philadelphia 1-9 last 10
Atlanta available at +100 moneyline (underdog price) despite being the superior team by nearly every measurable — pure value asymmetry