All Picks
MLB · MoneylineLost
St. Louis Cardinals
@
Miami Marlins
Date
Mon, Apr 20
Time
10:40 PM
Venue
loanDepot park
Spread
Cardinals ML
Odds
+109
Risk
MOD
PICK
Cardinals ML
+109 · 1 Unit
72%
❌ Loss
St. Louis Cardinals 3, Miami Marlins 5
-100.00u
The Edge
The Cardinals are live plus-money underdogs with a clear starting pitcher ERA edge, a hot ATS run, and a 5-game win streak against a Marlins team that is 5-8 ATS at home — enough directional signal to back St. Louis at +109.
Key Factors
Pitcher ERA edge: McGreevy 2.49 vs Meyer 4.12 — a 1.63-run delta, approaching the 1.5+ threshold flagged as a significant edge
Cardinals 7-3 ATS last 10 games vs Marlins 4-6 ATS last 10 — a +30% ATS differential in recent form
Cardinals on a 5-game win streak; Marlins only 1-game win streak with a 1-4 record in their last 5
Cardinals ML at +109 — underdog plus-money with a real edge; only needs ~48% win probability to be profitable, and the data suggests they are above that threshold