All Picks
MLB · MoneylineWon
Philadelphia Phillies
@
Chicago Cubs
Date
Mon, Apr 20
Time
11:40 PM
Venue
Wrigley Field
Spread
Cubs ML
Odds
-115
Risk
MOD
PICK
Cubs ML
-115 · 1 Unit
75%
✅ Winner
Philadelphia Phillies 1, Chicago Cubs 5
+86.96u
The Edge
The Cubs present a clean multi-layer edge — better starter, superior team pitching, stronger offense, home field, and dominant recent form against this same Phillies squad — at a reasonable -115 price that does not require heavy juice to justify.
Key Factors
Cubs team ERA 3.59 vs Phillies 4.84 — a 1.25 gap favoring Chicago's pitching staff, with team WHIP 1.15 vs 1.41
Cubs +3.2 run differential edge on the season (+1.4 avg margin vs -1.8 for Philadelphia)
Colin Rea 2-0 with 3.63 ERA vs Aaron Nola 1-1 with 4.03 ERA — Cubs starter has the edge in both record and ERA
Cubs W5 streak vs Phillies L5 streak; Cubs went 2-0 vs this exact Phillies squad Apr 14-15 (10-4, 11-2) and are 12-9 (.571) overall vs Philadelphia's 8-13 (.381)
Wind 8 mph out to RF at Wrigley slightly favors the more potent Cubs offense (team OPS .739 vs .669, BA .251 vs .222, 112 runs vs 75)