All Picks
MLB · MoneylineLost
Athletics
@
Seattle Mariners
Date
Tue, Apr 21
Time
1:40 AM
Venue
T-Mobile Park
Spread
Mariners ML
Odds
-163
Risk
MOD
PICK
Mariners ML
-163 · 1 Unit
72%
❌ Loss
Athletics 6, Seattle Mariners 4
-100.00u
The Edge
Hancock's 2.28 ERA, Seattle's elite 3.22 team ERA, and a pitcher-friendly home park create enough of a pitching-driven edge to back the Mariners ML at a manageable -163 price.
Key Factors
Pitcher ERA edge: Hancock at 2.28 ERA (2-1) vs Ginn at 3.31 — a 1.03 ERA gap favoring Seattle's starter
Team ERA gap is massive: Mariners 3.22 vs Athletics 4.82 — a 1.60 difference indicating Seattle's pitching staff is significantly better
T-Mobile Park run factor 0.94 and HR factor 0.87 suppresses scoring, which benefits the team with the superior pitching (Seattle)
Seattle is 9-5 at home SU this season and riding a W2 streak, while Oakland enters on an L1 with a -0.9 season run differential