All Picks
NHL · Moneyline
Anaheim Ducks
@
Edmonton Oilers
Date
Tue, Apr 21
Time
2:00 AM
Venue
Rogers Place
Spread
Ducks ML
Odds
+145
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Ducks ML
+145 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
The +145 underdog price on Anaheim is the play given Edmonton's historically bad home ATS record and Anaheim's elite road ATS performance, but goalie quality and team differential cap confidence to a LEAN.
Key Factors
Anaheim ATS road record is elite at 28-13 (.683); Edmonton ATS home record is one of the worst in the league at 12-29 (.293)
Anaheim ML at +145 requires only ~40.8% win probability to be profitable — a low bar given the data
Edmonton is only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games, showing consistent failure to cover regardless of opponent
Anaheim's overall ATS win rate of .671 (55-27) dwarfs Edmonton's .354 (29-53) — a +32% gap in covering ability