All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Milwaukee Brewers
@
Detroit Tigers
Date
Tue, Apr 21
Time
10:40 PM
Venue
Comerica Park
Spread
Tigers ML
Odds
-115
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Tigers ML
-115 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Detroit's elite home record (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS), superior team pitching metrics, and red-hot 8-2 ATS run last 10 give them a slight but real edge at a modest -115 price that doesn't require heavy juice to justify.
Key Factors
Detroit is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games — the hottest ATS team in this matchup
Tigers are 8-1 SU at home and 7-2 ATS at home (.778), the strongest home split in the data
Detroit's team ERA (3.41) and WHIP (1.26) are both better than Milwaukee's (3.85 / 1.32), and opponent OPS allowed (0.649) is significantly better than Milwaukee's (0.702)
Keider Montero (3.31 ERA) is comparable to Kyle Harrison (3.07 ERA) — no significant starter edge for Milwaukee despite being listed as a slight moneyline underdog