All Picks
MLB · MoneylineLost
Atlanta Braves
@
Washington Nationals
Date
Tue, Apr 21
Time
10:45 PM
Venue
Nationals Park
Spread
Braves ML
Odds
-136
Risk
MOD
PICK
Braves ML
-136 · 1 Unit
78%
❌ Loss
Atlanta Braves 4, Washington Nationals 11
-100.00u
The Edge
Atlanta's pitching infrastructure is so dominant (team ERA 2.68, Opp OPS .599) against a Washington offense that ranks among the weakest in the data, and their elite road form makes them the clear side at a reasonable -136 price.
Key Factors
Atlanta team ERA 2.68 vs Washington 5.71 — a 3.03-run gap that is the largest structural edge in this game
Atlanta road record 8-3 SU and 8-3 ATS (.727) vs Washington home record 2-8 SU and 4-6 ATS (.400) — elite road team vs weak home team
Atlanta +3.5 run differential edge on the season (+2.7 vs -0.8) and riding a 6-game win streak including a 9-4 win over Washington yesterday
Atlanta 7-3 ATS last 10 games and 15-8 ATS overall (.652) — sustained cover rate, not a fluke