All Picks
MLB · MoneylineWon
New York Yankees
@
Boston Red Sox
Date
Tue, Apr 21
Time
10:45 PM
Venue
Fenway Park
Spread
Yankees ML
Odds
-108
Risk
MOD
PICK
Yankees ML
-108 · 1 Unit
72%
✅ Winner
New York Yankees 4, Boston Red Sox 0
+92.59u
The Edge
Yankees ML at -108 offers underdog-adjacent value on the better overall team — the market has mispriced this line given NYY's superior run differential, ERA, and win percentage, making this a marginal but real edge despite Gil's shaky early ERA.
Key Factors
Yankees team ERA 3.40 vs Red Sox 4.42 — a full run better, reflecting a meaningfully stronger pitching staff
Yankees +1.9 run differential edge on the season (+1.3 avg margin vs BOS -0.6)
Red Sox are 3-7 ATS at home this season (.300) — one of the worst home ATS marks in the league
Yankees are 13-9 (.591 win%) vs Red Sox 9-13 (.409) — an 18% win rate gap, yet BOS is priced as the -112 favorite, creating underdog value on NYY at -108