All Picks
MLB · MoneylineWon
Philadelphia Phillies
@
Chicago Cubs
Date
Tue, Apr 21
Time
11:40 PM
Venue
Wrigley Field
Spread
Cubs ML
Odds
-122
Risk
MOD
PICK
Cubs ML
-122 · 1 Unit
78%
✅ Winner
Philadelphia Phillies 4, Chicago Cubs 7
+81.97u
The Edge
Imanaga's elite ERA against a struggling Luzardo, backed by superior team pitching, a dominant head-to-head record, and a Cubs squad riding a 6-game win streak, makes Cubs ML at -122 a clear value play at a manageable price.
Key Factors
Starter ERA gap of 5.49 — Imanaga at 2.45 vs Luzardo at 7.94 — meets the 'near-automatic lean' threshold of elite (<3.00) vs bad (>4.50)
Cubs team ERA of 3.47 vs Phillies 4.87, and opponent OPS allowed: Cubs hold opponents to .658 vs Phillies allowing .745 — systemic pitching superiority
Cubs on a W6 streak vs Phillies on an L6 streak; Cubs are 13-9 (.591) vs Phillies 8-14 (.364) — a +3.4 run differential edge
Head-to-head dominance this season: Cubs are 3-1 vs Phillies with wins of 5-1, 11-2, and 10-4 — including yesterday's game at this same venue
Cubs ML at -122 is a moderate favorite price in the sweet-spot EV zone (-110 to -170), requiring only ~55% implied probability to break even