All Picks
NHL · Moneyline
Montreal Canadiens
@
Tampa Bay Lightning
Date
Tue, Apr 21
Time
11:00 PM
Venue
Benchmark International Arena
Spread
Canadiens ML
Odds
+160
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Canadiens ML
+160 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Montreal at +160 offers genuine underdog value given their goal differential edge, elite ATS-as-underdog rate, and a recent head-to-head win over Tampa — but Vasilevskiy's goalie edge and home-ice bounce-back spot keep this a LEAN rather than a full PICK.
Key Factors
Canadiens ML at +160 requires only a ~38% win probability to be profitable — Montreal's season metrics suggest they are closer to a 45-48% true win probability in this spot
Montreal holds a +2.0 goal differential edge over Tampa Bay and allows 1.00 fewer goals per game (3.00 GAA vs 4.00 GAA), indicating a meaningfully stronger defensive structure
Canadiens are 7-3 ATS last 10 games and 44-24 (.647) ATS as an underdog on the season — elite underdog cover rate
Montreal won the most recent head-to-head matchup 4-3 on Apr 19, demonstrating they can compete with and beat this Tampa Bay squad directly