All Picks
MLB · MoneylineLost
Cincinnati Reds
@
Tampa Bay Rays
Date
Wed, Apr 22
Time
5:10 PM
Venue
Tropicana Field
Spread
Reds ML
Odds
+119
Risk
MOD
PICK
Reds ML
+119 · 1 Unit
73%
❌ Loss
Cincinnati Reds 1, Tampa Bay Rays 6
-100.00u
The Edge
Cincinnati's elite road ATS record, superior team pitching, active 5-game win streak, and plus-money underdog price combine to make the Reds ML a value play despite Martinez's strong ERA.
Key Factors
Reds are 10-2 (.833) ATS on the road this season — elite road performance with a clear sample
Cincinnati team ERA 3.47 vs Tampa Bay team ERA 4.86 — a 1.39-run gap favoring Reds pitching
Reds have won 5 straight and are 8-2 ATS last 10; Rays are on a 3-game losing streak and 0-2 in this series
Reds ML at +119 offers underdog value — only needs ~46% win probability to be profitable, while the data suggests a higher actual edge