All Picks
MLB · MoneylineLost
Milwaukee Brewers
@
Detroit Tigers
Date
Wed, Apr 22
Time
10:40 PM
Venue
Comerica Park
Spread
Brewers ML
Odds
+113
Risk
MOD
PICK
Brewers ML
+113 · 1 Unit
72%
❌ Loss
Milwaukee Brewers 2, Detroit Tigers 5
-100.00u
The Edge
Brewers ML at +113 offers genuine underdog value backed by superior team quality, a significant ERA edge from the starter, and an elite road ATS record — the price does not reflect Milwaukee's actual edge in this matchup.
Key Factors
Brewers are 7-3 ATS on the road this season (.700), matching Detroit's own 7-3 ATS last-10 run and providing equal recent form at plus money
Milwaukee's season run differential is +1.3 vs Detroit's +0.3 — a full +1.0 edge indicating meaningful team quality gap
Chad Patrick carries a 0.95 ERA (1-0) vs Casey Mize at 2.78 ERA (1-1) — Patrick's ERA is nearly 2 full runs better, the single largest quantifiable edge in this matchup
Brewers are 14-8 ATS overall (.636) vs Tigers' 12-12 (.500) — a 14% ATS win rate advantage across the full season sample