All Picks
MLB · MoneylineWon
New York Yankees
@
Boston Red Sox
Date
Wed, Apr 22
Time
10:45 PM
Venue
Fenway Park
Spread
Yankees ML
Odds
-143
Risk
MOD
PICK
Yankees ML
-143 · 1 Unit
75%
✅ Winner
New York Yankees 4, Boston Red Sox 1
+69.93u
The Edge
The Yankees carry a clear multi-layered edge — superior pitching, better run differential, elite road ATS record, and a Boston home team that is one of the worst ATS covers in baseball — making NYY ML at -143 a justified moderate-confidence pick.
Key Factors
Pitching edge: Max Fried (2-1, 2.97 ERA) vs Ranger Suarez (1-1, 3.22 ERA) — Fried's ERA is 0.25 lower and Yankees team ERA (3.25) is 1.15 runs better than Boston's (4.40)
Team quality gap: Yankees +2.1 run differential edge, 14-9 (.609) vs Boston's 9-14 (.391), and +22% ATS win rate advantage overall
Road ATS dominance: Yankees are 6-4 (.600) ATS on the road this season vs Boston's brutal 3-8 (.273) ATS at home
Momentum: Yankees on a W4 streak including a 4-0 shutout of Boston yesterday; Red Sox on L1 and have gone 1-4 in their last 5 with an ATS record of 1-4 in that span