All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Milwaukee Brewers
@
Detroit Tigers
Date
Thu, Apr 23
Time
5:10 PM
Venue
Comerica Park
Spread
Tigers ML
Odds
-240
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Tigers ML
-240 · 1 Unit
72%
The Edge
Skubal's dominant ERA advantage and Detroit's elite 8-3 home ATS record make the Tigers the clear directional lean, but the -240 price demands 80+ confidence to qualify as a PICK and this sits just below that threshold at 72.
Key Factors
Skubal's 2.08 ERA vs Sproat's 6.88 ERA — a 4.80-run gap that far exceeds the 1.5+ threshold for a significant starter edge
Detroit is 9-2 SU at home and 8-3 ATS at home (.727), an elite home split that anchors the Tigers' side
Detroit's 7-3 ATS run last 10 games reflects genuine recent momentum, not a small-sample blip
Detroit's team ERA (3.63) and Opp OPS allowed (0.657) both rank better than Milwaukee's (3.93 ERA, 0.708 Opp OPS), giving Detroit a pitching-staff-wide edge