All Picks
NBA · Spread
Denver Nuggets
@
Minnesota Timberwolves
Date
Fri, Apr 24
Time
1:30 AM
Venue
Target Center
Spread
Timberwolves +2.5
Odds
-110
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Timberwolves +2.5
-110 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Minnesota's home underdog ATS record (13-7), defensive strength, and home court in a tied series provide enough cover to lean the points, but Edwards' injury uncertainty and Denver's overall superiority cap this at a LEAN.
Key Factors
Minnesota won the most recent head-to-head 119-114 on the road at Denver, demonstrating they can beat this team — home court now flips to their favor
Timberwolves' defensive rating of 110.9 is significantly better than Denver's offensive rating of 119.4, and Denver shoots only 43.9% FG (#24) and 32.5% 3P% (#25) — among the worst in the league
Minnesota is 13-7 (.650) ATS as a home underdog this season, a strong and specific situational edge directly applicable here
Anthony Edwards is questionable but the methodology notes day-to-day on game day usually means out — yet Denver also has Aaron Gordon (probable) and Peyton Watson (OUT), partially offsetting any Edwards absence