All Picks
MLB · MoneylineWon
Philadelphia Phillies
@
Atlanta Braves
Date
Fri, Apr 24
Time
11:15 PM
Venue
Truist Park
Spread
Braves ML
Odds
-149
Risk
MOD
PICK
Braves ML
-149 · 1 Unit
78%
✅ Winner
Philadelphia Phillies 3, Atlanta Braves 5
+67.11u
The Edge
Atlanta's combination of superior pitching, elite home performance, a 3-0 season series sweep, and Philadelphia's historic ATS futility (1-9 last 10) provides enough concrete edges to back the Braves ML at a moderate price.
Key Factors
Pitching gap is decisive: Atlanta ERA 3.12 / WHIP 1.12 vs Philadelphia ERA 5.12 / WHIP 1.52 — a 2.00 ERA delta far exceeds the 1.5 threshold for a significant edge
Atlanta starter Grant Holmes (3.42 ERA) vs Andrew Painter (4.42 ERA) — Holmes holds a 1.00 ERA advantage in this specific matchup
Atlanta home ATS record 7-5 (.583) vs Philadelphia road ATS record 2-8 (.200) — a 38-point ATS win rate gap
Philadelphia on a 9-game losing streak and 1-9 ATS last 10; Atlanta 7-3 ATS last 10 with a +4.4 run differential edge and a 3-0 season series sweep of Philadelphia