All Picks
NHL · Moneyline
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
Montreal Canadiens
Date
Fri, Apr 24
Time
11:00 PM
Venue
Bell Centre
Spread
Lightning ML
Odds
-122
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Lightning ML
-122 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Vasilevskiy's individual goalie edge and Tampa's head-to-head dominance this season provide a lean toward the Lightning ML, but Montreal's strong underdog ATS history and superior team SV% keep this from reaching PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Vasilevskiy holds a +0.011 SV% edge over Dobes (.912 vs .901) and a -0.47 GAA advantage (2.31 vs 2.78) — the single highest-leverage factor in hockey
Tampa has won both head-to-head matchups this season (Apr 19 and Apr 21), including a 3-2 road win in the most recent meeting
Tampa's shots/game (28.5) significantly outpaces Montreal's (23.0), giving Vasilevskiy a volume-of-attack edge in the offensive zone
Montreal's ATS as a home favorite is a poor 4-10 (.286), suggesting they struggle to cover when installed as the favored side at Bell Centre