All Picks
MLB · MoneylineLost
Philadelphia Phillies
@
Atlanta Braves
Date
Sat, Apr 25
Time
11:15 PM
Venue
Truist Park
Spread
Braves ML
Odds
-126
Risk
MOD
PICK
Braves ML
-126 · 1 Unit
78%
❌ Loss
Philadelphia Phillies 8, Atlanta Braves 5
-100.00u
The Edge
Atlanta's elite home form, dominant season series sweep, superior team pitching, and an ATS run that is statistically overwhelming make the Braves ML a clear PICK at a reasonable -126 price.
Key Factors
Bryce Elder is 3-1 with a 1.50 ERA — elite by any measure — while Zack Wheeler is returning from a 15-day IL shoulder injury with unknown readiness and pitch-count limitations
Atlanta is 8-2 ATS last 10 games vs Philadelphia's 0-10 ATS last 10 — a 51% gap in ATS win rate this season (ATL .667 vs PHI .154)
Atlanta's team ERA is 3.11 vs Philadelphia's 5.14, and Atlanta's Opp OPS is .635 vs Philadelphia's .785 — a systemic pitching and run-prevention advantage
Atlanta is 9-4 at home vs Philadelphia's 3-8 on the road, and Atlanta has swept the season series 4-0 including a 5-3 win the night prior