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NBA · SpreadWon
Boston Celtics
@
Philadelphia 76ers
Date
Sun, Apr 26
Time
11:00 PM
Venue
Xfinity Mobile Arena
Spread
Celtics -7.5
Odds
-110
Risk
MOD
PICK
Celtics -7.5
-110 · 1 Unit
78%
✅ Winner
Boston Celtics 128, Philadelphia 76ers 96
+90.91u
The Edge
With Embiid out, Philadelphia's already-negative point differential and historically poor home ATS record make Boston -7.5 a genuine value at a spread that likely underweights the star absence.
Key Factors
Joel Embiid (OUT) removes Philadelphia's franchise anchor — a star absence historically worth 3-5 pts of line adjustment, meaning -7.5 is functionally closer to -3.5 on a neutral-talent basis
Boston's Net Rating of +7.8 vs Philadelphia's -0.1 is a 7.9-point gap — the single strongest team-quality predictor available, and it favors Boston decisively
Philadelphia is 12-29 ATS at home (.293) this season — one of the worst home ATS records in the league — and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall
Boston leads the head-to-head series 2-1 this postseason, including a 108-100 road win in Game 3 (the most recent meeting), demonstrating they can execute against this roster without Embiid