All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Detroit Tigers
@
Cincinnati Reds
Date
Sun, Apr 26
Time
5:40 PM
Venue
Great American Ball Park
Spread
Reds ML
Odds
-112
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Reds ML
-112 · 1 Unit
72%
The Edge
Cincinnati gets the nod as a LEAN — better starter, dominant home/road split advantage, elite recent ATS form, and favorable park conditions tip the scales, but Detroit's superior team OPS and the thin -112 price keep this short of a full PICK.
Key Factors
Reds ATS last 10 is 8-2 (.800) vs Tigers 5-5 (.500) — a 30-point edge in recent cover rate
Rhett Lowder (3-1, 3.10 ERA) holds a meaningful ERA edge over Keider Montero (1-2, 3.68 ERA)
Cincinnati home record is 8-6 SU and 8-6 ATS (.571) vs Detroit's road record of 4-12 SU and 5-11 ATS (.313)
Great American Ball Park run factor 1.14 / HR factor 1.22 with 8 mph wind out to RF and 72°F — conditions favor the home offense