All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Philadelphia Phillies
@
Miami Marlins
Date
Fri, May 1
Time
11:10 PM
Venue
loanDepot park
Spread
Marlins ML
Odds
+100
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Marlins ML
+100 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
Miami's superior bullpen/team pitching metrics, home dominance, and ATS momentum create a directional lean, but Wheeler's starter advantage and Miami's mediocre home ATS record prevent this from reaching PICK confidence.
Key Factors
Miami's team ERA is 3.91 vs. Philadelphia's 4.84 — a 0.93 gap favoring Marlins pitching depth beyond the starter
Miami is 10-6 at home (.625) while Philadelphia is 4-9 on the road (.308) — a 31-point win% gap
Miami is 7-3 ATS last 10 games vs. Philadelphia's 2-8 ATS last 10 — a 50-point momentum gap
Miami's team WHIP is 1.27 vs. Philadelphia's 1.48, and opponent OPS allowed is .663 vs. .764 — Marlins pitching staff is significantly better across the board