All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Kansas City Royals
@
Seattle Mariners
Date
Sat, May 2
Time
1:45 AM
Venue
T-Mobile Park
Spread
Mariners ML
Odds
-156
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Mariners ML
-156 · 1 Unit
65%
The Edge
Seattle's superior pitching staff, home record, and the ERA edge from Woo over Ragans provide a directional lean, but the Mariners' poor ATS record and KC's underdog cover rate keep this from reaching PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Pitching edge: Woo (3.86 ERA, 1-2) vs. Ragans (5.00 ERA, 1-4) — a 1.14 ERA delta favoring the home starter
Team ERA gap: Seattle 3.67 vs. Kansas City 4.54, and opponent OPS allowed 0.724 vs. 0.764 — Mariners staff is significantly better
Home dominance: Seattle is 10-7 at home vs. KC's brutal 3-12 road record (.200 road win pct)
Momentum: Seattle on W2 streak, Kansas City on L2 streak with a -0.7 average run differential on the season