All Picks
NBA · Spread
Philadelphia 76ers
@
Boston Celtics
Date
Sat, May 2
Time
11:30 PM
Venue
TD Garden
Spread
Celtics -7.5
Odds
-110
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Celtics -7.5
-110 · 1 Unit
72%
The Edge
Boston's massive efficiency and point differential edge justifies a lean toward covering, but Embiid's probable status, Boston's poor home ATS record, and the unpredictable nature of a Game 7 keep this below PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Boston's Net Rating of +7.8 vs Philadelphia's -0.1 — a 7.9-point gap that is the cleanest predictor of NBA outcomes
Boston's Defensive Rating of 109.0 vs Philadelphia's 116.1 allowed — Celtics defense should contain a 76ers offense ranked #24 in PPG
Philadelphia is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games, the most predictive ATS window available
Boston's eFG% of 55.3 vs Philadelphia's 53.0, with superior rebounding (RPG 47.3 vs 40.7) and ORB% (29.2 vs 26.2) giving them consistent extra possessions at home