All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Cincinnati Reds
@
Pittsburgh Pirates
Date
Sat, May 2
Time
8:05 PM
Venue
PNC Park
Spread
Reds ML
Odds
+113
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Reds ML
+113 · 1 Unit
60%
The Edge
Lowder's ERA edge and Cincinnati's elite road ATS record provide a lean toward the Reds ML at plus money (+113), but the blowout loss the prior night, Pittsburgh's superior team pitching metrics, and home-field advantage keep this a lean rather than a strong pick.
Key Factors
Pitching edge: Lowder 3.18 ERA vs Mlodzinski 4.13 ERA — nearly a full run differential favoring Cincinnati's starter
Elite road ATS: Reds are 10-4 (.714) on the road this season, the strongest split in this matchup
Team ERA advantage: Cincinnati's opponent OPS allowed is 0.751 but their rotation ERA (4.19) is offset by Pittsburgh's team WHIP of 1.24 vs Cincinnati's 1.45 — however Lowder specifically outperforms his team's aggregate
Cincinnati overall ATS record 20-12 (.625) vs Pittsburgh's 18-15 (.545) — Reds cover at a higher rate across the board