All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
San Francisco Giants
@
Tampa Bay Rays
Date
Sat, May 2
Time
10:10 PM
Venue
Tropicana Field
Spread
Rays ML
Odds
-110
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Rays ML
-110 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
Tampa Bay's dominant home record and ATS momentum lean toward the Rays, but Griffin Jax's 6.35 ERA against an opposing ace makes this a LEAN rather than a PICK at even money.
Key Factors
San Francisco's starter Landen Roupp carries a 5-1 record and 2.55 ERA — but this actually favors the Giants, not Tampa Bay; Tampa Bay's home edge and ATS record are the primary lean drivers
Tampa Bay is 9-4 at home (.692) vs San Francisco 6-10 on the road (.375) — a 31.7% home/road split gap
Tampa Bay is 7-3 ATS last 10 games and 19-12 ATS overall (.613) vs San Francisco's 13-19 ATS (.406) — a 21% ATS win rate edge
Tampa Bay outscores opponents with 140 runs scored and a superior team WHIP of 1.22 vs San Francisco's 1.30, plus a better Opp OPS allowed (0.676 vs 0.700)