All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Los Angeles Dodgers
@
St. Louis Cardinals
Date
Sat, May 2
Time
11:15 PM
Venue
Busch Stadium
Spread
Cardinals ML
Odds
+113
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Cardinals ML
+113 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
McGreevy's sharp ERA advantage over a struggling Sasaki, combined with the Cardinals' elite recent ATS form and strong home underdog record, makes St. Louis a credible LEAN at plus money — but the Dodgers' superior overall roster and bullpen depth keep this short of a full PICK.
Key Factors
Starting pitcher ERA gap: McGreevy 2.97 vs. Sasaki 6.35 — a 3.38-run differential that clears the 1.5+ threshold for a significant edge per methodology
Cardinals 8-2 ATS last 10 games vs. Dodgers 3-7 ATS last 10 — a 50-point ATS win-rate gap in the most recent sample
Cardinals 10-6 ATS at home (.625) and 16-10 ATS as home underdog (.615) — elite home cover profile at +113
Dodgers on an L3 streak with multiple key injuries (Betts, Edman, Snell, Diaz on IL) while Cardinals are riding a W5 streak