All Picks
MLB · MoneylineWon
Baltimore Orioles
@
New York Yankees
Date
Sun, May 3
Time
5:35 PM
Venue
Yankee Stadium
Spread
Yankees ML
Odds
-240
Risk
MOD
PICK
Yankees ML
-240 · 1 Unit
78%
✅ Winner
Baltimore Orioles 3, New York Yankees 11
+41.67u
The Edge
Fried's elite ERA against an unproven starter, the Yankees' superior pitching staff, and their dominant home-field advantage combine for a clear directional edge — but the -240 price demands a PICK-level confidence that the data supports at 78.
Key Factors
Starting pitcher edge: Max Fried is 4-1 with a 2.09 ERA; Trey Gibson has no MLB record listed — an elite vs unknown gap that methodology flags as near-automatic lean toward the better starter's team
Team ERA gap: Yankees 3.01 vs Orioles 4.55 — a 1.54 run differential in pitching quality that extends beyond the starter into the bullpen
Home/road split dominance: Yankees are 10-5 at home (.667) while Orioles are 6-9 on the road (.400) — a 26.7% win-rate gap in this exact context
Yankees ATS momentum: 7-3 ATS last 10 games with a +2.3 run differential edge and a 2-0 series sweep of Baltimore already this week (9-4, 7-2)