All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Los Angeles Dodgers
@
St. Louis Cardinals
Date
Sun, May 3
Time
6:15 PM
Venue
Busch Stadium
Spread
Dodgers ML
Odds
-149
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Dodgers ML
-149 · 1 Unit
63%
The Edge
Wrobleski's elite ERA against May's struggling 5.28 is the clearest edge on the board, but the Dodgers' L4 skid, 3-7 ATS run, and key injury absences prevent this from reaching PICK confidence against a Cardinals team that has covered 8 of its last 10.
Key Factors
Starter ERA gap: Wrobleski 1.50 vs. May 5.28 — a 3.78-run differential, well above the 1.5+ threshold flagged as a significant edge
Dodgers team ERA 3.29 vs. Cardinals 4.59 — a 1.30-run gap indicating systemic pitching superiority beyond just the starter
Dodgers run differential +1.8 vs. Cardinals +0.1 — a +1.7 edge reflecting true team quality over 33 games
Dodgers team OPS .790 vs. Cardinals .736, and opponent OPS allowed .644 vs. .743 — Dodgers are better on both sides of the ball