All Picks
MLB · MoneylineLost
Boston Red Sox
@
Detroit Tigers
Date
Mon, May 4
Time
10:40 PM
Venue
Comerica Park
Spread
Tigers ML
Odds
-240
Risk
MOD
PICK
Tigers ML
-240 · 1 Unit
78%
❌ Loss
Boston Red Sox 5, Detroit Tigers 4
-100.00u
The Edge
Detroit's elite home record, superior pitching matchup with Skubal, and dominant team metrics justify a PICK despite the heavy juice, but confidence stops at 78 given the -240 price requiring near-70% accuracy to profit.
Key Factors
Skubal's 2.70 ERA is a clear pitching edge over Tolle's 3.38 ERA — Detroit's starter is the superior arm in this matchup
Detroit is 12-3 at home vs Boston's 7-11 on the road — a massive home/road split gap
Detroit ATS at home as underdog: 7-3 (.700) vs Boston ATS on road: 7-11 (.389) — a 31-point ATS gap
Detroit team OPS 0.738 vs Boston 0.668, team ERA 3.81 vs Boston 4.24, and +1.1 run differential edge — superior across all three team quality metrics