All Picks
MLB · MoneylineWon
Toronto Blue Jays
@
Tampa Bay Rays
Date
Tue, May 5
Time
10:40 PM
Venue
Tropicana Field
Spread
Rays ML
Odds
-131
Risk
MOD
PICK
Rays ML
-131 · 1 Unit
78%
✅ Winner
Toronto Blue Jays 3, Tampa Bay Rays 4
+76.34u
The Edge
The Rays ML at -131 is a justified moderate favorite play given their elite home record, superior team pitching, and red-hot 8-2 ATS run, with the price sitting comfortably in the best-EV zone.
Key Factors
Rays home record is 12-4 SU (.750) vs Blue Jays road record of 6-11 (.353) — a 39.7% win-rate gap
Rays ATS home split is 11-5 (.688) vs Blue Jays ATS road split of 6-11 (.353) — a 33.5% ATS gap
Drew Rasmussen ERA 2.64 vs Kevin Gausman ERA 3.10 — Rays starter holds a 0.46 ERA edge with a better record (2-1 vs 2-2)
Rays team ERA 3.67 vs Blue Jays team ERA 4.27 — Tampa Bay's pitching staff is 0.60 runs per game better, and opponent OPS allowed (0.665) is well below Toronto's (0.702)