All Picks
MLB · MoneylineWon
Texas Rangers
@
New York Yankees
Date
Tue, May 5
Time
11:05 PM
Venue
Yankee Stadium
Spread
Yankees ML
Odds
-131
Risk
MOD
PICK
Yankees ML
-131 · 1 Unit
78%
✅ Winner
Texas Rangers 4, New York Yankees 7
+76.34u
The Edge
The Yankees' overwhelming team quality edge (.686 win%, +2.3 run differential, .791 OPS, 2.95 ERA) combined with home-field advantage and a hot 7-3 ATS run outweighs deGrom's individual brilliance, making NYY ML at -131 a solid moderate-favorite value play.
Key Factors
Starting pitcher ERA delta of 2.49 (deGrom 2.01 vs Rodriguez 4.50) — methodology flags elite vs bad starter as a near-automatic lean on the better starter's team, but deGrom is pitching for Texas, meaning the Yankees must overcome this gap with team quality
Yankees team ERA of 2.95 vs Rangers 3.66, and opponent OPS allowed of .623 vs .675 — Yankees pitching staff is meaningfully better across the board
Yankees 24-11 (.686 win%) vs Rangers 16-18 (.471), with +2.2 run differential vs -0.1 — a 2.3-run quality gap is the largest team-level edge in this dataset
Yankees 7-3 ATS last 10 and 10-7 ATS at home (.588), riding a W4 streak with back-to-back blowouts (12-1, 11-3 vs BAL) — momentum and home environment both point the same direction
Yankees team OPS .791 vs Rangers .791 — wait, Yankees .791 vs Rangers .686 — a 105-point OPS gap in a hitter-friendly park (Yankee Stadium HR factor 1.28) with wind 8 mph out to RF