All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Milwaukee Brewers
@
St. Louis Cardinals
Date
Tue, May 5
Time
11:45 PM
Venue
Busch Stadium
Spread
Cardinals ML
Odds
-112
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Cardinals ML
-112 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
Pallante's clear ERA advantage at home tips this toward St. Louis, but Milwaukee's superior run differential and elite road ATS record cap confidence at a LEAN rather than a PICK.
Key Factors
Pitcher ERA gap: Pallante 3.73 vs. Sproat 6.75 — a 3.02-run differential, well above the 1.5 threshold for a significant edge
Cardinals 8-2 ATS last 10 games — the hottest ATS team in this matchup by a wide margin
Cardinals 21-14 overall (.600 win%) vs. Brewers 18-16 (.529) — meaningful record gap at home
Cardinals team OPS 0.731 vs. Brewers 0.694 — superior offensive output against a struggling starter