All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
New York Mets
@
Colorado Rockies
Date
Wed, May 6
Time
12:40 AM
Venue
Coors Field
Spread
Mets ML
Odds
-168
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Mets ML
-168 · 1 Unit
65%
The Edge
The pitching matchup strongly favors the Mets, but Coors Field's extreme environment and the Mets' weak offense create enough uncertainty to keep this a LEAN rather than a PICK at -168.
Key Factors
Starter ERA delta of 2.57 (Peralta 3.52 vs Lorenzen 6.09) — exceeds the 1.5+ threshold flagged as a significant edge
Mets hold a 3-1 season series advantage over Colorado, including a 4-2 win in the most recent matchup on May 4
Mets team ERA of 3.91 vs Rockies team ERA of 4.59 — superior pitching staff top to bottom
Mets are 5-3 ATS as road underdogs (.625) and the Rockies are on a 5-game losing streak with a depleted bullpen from recent heavy use