All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Milwaukee Brewers
@
St. Louis Cardinals
Date
Wed, May 6
Time
5:15 PM
Venue
Busch Stadium
Spread
Cardinals ML
Odds
-112
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Cardinals ML
-112 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
The Pallante vs Sproat ERA gap is decisive enough for a lean toward St. Louis at home, but Milwaukee's superior run differential and bullpen metrics cap this at a LEAN rather than a PICK.
Key Factors
Starter ERA gap: Pallante 3.73 vs Sproat 6.75 — a 3.02-run differential that clears the 1.5+ threshold for a significant edge
Cardinals 8-2 ATS last 10 games — the hottest cover team in this matchup by a wide margin
Cardinals superior team OPS (.731 vs .694) and BA (.243 vs .241) with nearly double the home runs (44 vs 23) — clear offensive edge
Cardinals 21-14 (.600 win%) vs Brewers 18-16 (.529) with home field advantage at Busch Stadium