All Picks
MLB · MoneylineWon
Pittsburgh Pirates
@
Arizona Diamondbacks
Date
Thu, May 7
Time
1:40 AM
Venue
Chase Field
Spread
Pirates ML
Odds
-143
Risk
MOD
PICK
Pirates ML
-143 · 1 Unit
76%
✅ Winner
Pittsburgh Pirates 1, Arizona Diamondbacks 0
+69.93u
The Edge
Skenes' elite ERA and Pittsburgh's superior team pitching metrics provide enough statistical weight to back the Pirates ML at a moderate -143 price, despite the back-to-back game context.
Key Factors
Starter ERA delta: Skenes 3.18 vs Soroka 4.70 — a 1.52-run gap that clears the 1.5+ significant edge threshold
Pittsburgh team ERA 3.88 vs Arizona team ERA 4.92 — a 1.04-run gap confirming systemic pitching superiority beyond just the starter
Pittsburgh run differential +0.6 vs Arizona -0.6 — a +1.2 combined edge in team quality across 36 games
Pittsburgh opponent OPS allowed 0.664 vs Arizona opponent OPS allowed 0.759 — Pirates pitching staff suppresses opposing offenses significantly better