All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Texas Rangers
@
New York Yankees
Date
Thu, May 7
Time
4:35 PM
Venue
Yankee Stadium
Spread
Yankees ML
Odds
-149
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Yankees ML
-149 · 1 Unit
72%
The Edge
Yankees ML is a LEAN — Blackburn's ERA edge, elite home record, and run differential superiority point clearly to New York, but yesterday's loss, key injuries, and Texas's strong underdog ATS record prevent this from reaching PICK threshold at -149.
Key Factors
Pitcher ERA edge: Blackburn 3.21 vs Gore 4.67 — a 1.46 ERA delta that meets the 1.5 threshold for a significant starting pitcher edge
Yankees team OPS .786 vs Rangers .786 — Yankees have scored 200 runs vs Rangers' 137, a 63-run gap through comparable games
Yankees +2.0 run differential vs Rangers 0.0 — a full 2-run quality gap per game at the team level
Yankees 25-12 at home (.676 win%) with a 13-6 home record and 11-8 ATS home mark (.579) — elite home performance all season