All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Tampa Bay Rays
@
Boston Red Sox
Date
Thu, May 7
Time
11:00 PM
Venue
Fenway Park
Spread
Rays ML
Odds
-105
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Rays ML
-105 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
Tampa Bay's ATS dominance and Boston's historically poor home ATS record create a real directional lean toward the Rays ML, but Bennett's 1.80 ERA vs Jax's 5.14 ERA is too large a pitching gap to ignore and prevents this from reaching PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Rays are 23-13 ATS (.639) overall vs Red Sox 13-24 (.351) — a 29% ATS win rate gap
Rays on an 8-2 ATS run last 10 games, including a 6-game win streak (W6)
Boston is 4-12 ATS at home (.250) — one of the worst home ATS marks in the league
Rays own superior team ERA (3.55 vs 4.00) and WHIP (1.18 vs 1.30), and hold a better Opp OPS allowed (0.656 vs 0.719)