All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
New York Mets
@
Arizona Diamondbacks
Date
Sat, May 9
Time
1:40 AM
Venue
Chase Field
Spread
Mets ML
Odds
-136
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Mets ML
-136 · 1 Unit
60%
The Edge
The starter ERA gap strongly favors the Mets ML at a moderate price of -136, but Arizona's elite home ATS record and overall ATS dominance cap this at a LEAN rather than a PICK.
Key Factors
Pitcher ERA delta of 3.64 (McLean 2.97 vs Nelson 6.61) far exceeds the 1.5 threshold flagged as a significant edge
Mets team ERA of 4.01 vs Diamondbacks 4.78 — NYM pitching staff is meaningfully better on the season
Mets opponent OPS allowed (0.677) is lower than Arizona's (0.753), confirming NYM pitching suppresses offenses more effectively
Mets are 5-3 ATS as road underdogs (.625) this season, showing value when priced as dogs