All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
New York Mets
@
Arizona Diamondbacks
Date
Sat, May 9
Time
11:15 PM
Venue
Chase Field
Spread
Mets ML
Odds
-120
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Mets ML
-120 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
Holmes vs Kelly is a legitimate pitching mismatch, but the Mets' brutal 9-21 ATS record as favorites caps this at a LEAN rather than a PICK — the edge is real but the price and the Mets' history as chalk make full commitment unwarranted.
Key Factors
Starter ERA delta of 8.26 (Holmes 1.69 vs Kelly 9.95) — far exceeds the 1.5+ threshold for a significant edge and qualifies as an elite vs. bad matchup under methodology
Mets team ERA of 3.92 vs Diamondbacks team ERA of 4.69 — New York's pitching staff is meaningfully better top to bottom
Mets won Game 1 of this series 3-1 last night, covering -1.5, and have covered ATS in 4 of their last 5 games as road favorites
Arizona is on a 3-game losing streak and has gone 4-6 ATS in their last 10, while their overall ATS edge (23-14) is largely a function of being priced as underdogs — tonight they are the +100 dog