All Picks
MLB · MoneylineLost
Minnesota Twins
@
Cleveland Guardians
Date
Sun, May 10
Time
5:40 PM
Venue
Progressive Field
Spread
Guardians ML
Odds
-168
Risk
MOD
PICK
Guardians ML
-168 · 1 Unit
76%
❌ Loss
Minnesota Twins 5, Cleveland Guardians 4
-100.00u
The Edge
Williams's clear ERA and quality advantage over Morris, combined with Cleveland's elite home ATS record (.667) and red-hot 7-3 ATS run, provide enough layered statistical support to back the Guardians ML at a moderate -168 price.
Key Factors
Pitcher ERA delta: Williams 3.28 vs Morris 4.96 — a 1.68-run gap that clears the 1.5+ significant-edge threshold
Cleveland home ATS record: 12-6 (.667), including 15-7 (.682) as home underdog — among the strongest home splits in this dataset
Cleveland ATS last 10: 7-3 vs Minnesota's 3-7 — Guardians running hot, Twins running cold
Team ERA advantage: Cleveland 3.91 vs Minnesota 4.64, with Cleveland also holding a lower WHIP (1.27 vs 1.37) and lower opponent OPS (0.705 vs 0.741)