All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Colorado Rockies
@
Pittsburgh Pirates
Date
Tue, May 12
Time
10:40 PM
Venue
PNC Park
Spread
Pirates ML
Odds
-349
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Pirates ML
-349 · 1 Unit
72%
The Edge
Skenes vs Lorenzen is a dominant pitching edge and Pittsburgh's team metrics are superior across the board, but the -349 moneyline demands 80+ confidence to justify the juice — this is a LEAN, not a PICK.
Key Factors
Starter ERA gap is 4.56 runs (Skenes 2.36 vs Lorenzen 6.92) — methodology flags elite vs bad starter as a near-automatic lean on the better starter's team
Pittsburgh team ERA (3.73) vs Colorado team ERA (4.84) — a 1.11-run team pitching advantage extending beyond the starter
Pirates opponent OPS allowed (0.659) vs Rockies opponent OPS allowed (0.794) — a 135-point gap reflecting a far superior overall pitching staff
Pittsburgh season record 22-19 (.537) vs Colorado 16-25 (.390), with run differentials of +0.7 vs -0.8 — a +1.5 team quality edge at home