All Picks
MLB · MoneylineLost
Philadelphia Phillies
@
Pittsburgh Pirates
Date
Fri, May 15
Time
10:40 PM
Venue
PNC Park
Spread
Pirates ML
Odds
-137
Risk
MOD
PICK
Pirates ML
-137 · 1 Unit
76%
❌ Loss
Philadelphia Phillies 11, Pittsburgh Pirates 9
-100.00u
The Edge
Pittsburgh's clear pitching advantage — both in the starter matchup (2.37 ERA gap) and team-wide metrics — combined with a dominant home ATS record makes the Pirates ML a credible PICK at a reasonable -137 price.
Key Factors
Starter ERA gap: Ashcraft 2.77 vs Nola 5.14 — a 2.37-run differential, well above the 1.5 threshold for a meaningful pitching edge
Pittsburgh team ERA 3.71 vs Philadelphia 3.71 — Pirates staff holds opponents to .658 OPS vs Phillies opponents posting .736 OPS, a 78-point gap
Pirates home ATS record 13-10 (.565) vs Phillies road ATS record 5-15 (.250) — a 31.5-point gap in ATS win rate on home/road splits specifically
Pittsburgh run differential +0.7 vs Philadelphia -0.7 — a +1.4 edge in average margin, and Pirates are 24-20 (.545) vs Phillies 21-23 (.477)