All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
San Diego Padres
@
Seattle Mariners
Date
Sat, May 16
Time
1:40 AM
Venue
T-Mobile Park
Spread
Mariners ML
Odds
-136
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Mariners ML
-136 · 1 Unit
60%
The Edge
A lean toward the Mariners at home given their pitching edge and pitcher-friendly park, but Seattle's poor home ATS record and San Diego's strong overall ATS performance cap this at a lean rather than a confident pick.
Key Factors
Seattle team ERA 3.62 vs San Diego 4.14 — a 0.52 gap favoring Mariners pitching staff overall
T-Mobile Park run factor 0.94 and HR factor 0.87 suppresses scoring, favoring the team with the better pitching (SEA ERA 3.62)
Seattle home record 12-11 SU is modest but Padres are on a L1 streak coming off a 1-7 blowout loss with team OPS of only .659 vs Seattle's .708
Mariners won the only prior series between these teams this season 3-0 (Apr 15-17), outscoring SD 16-9 across those three games