All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Toronto Blue Jays
@
Detroit Tigers
Date
Sat, May 16
Time
5:10 PM
Venue
Comerica Park
Spread
Tigers ML
Odds
-131
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Tigers ML
-131 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
Detroit's elite home record and Mize's ERA advantage justify a lean toward the Tigers ML, but the Mize IL flag introduces enough uncertainty to keep this below PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Detroit is 13-6 at home (.684) vs Toronto's 6-14 on the road (.300) — a 38-point ATS gap that is the sharpest split in this dataset
Casey Mize holds a significant ERA advantage at 2.90 vs Mason Fluharty's 5.40 — a 2.50-run delta that clears the 1.5+ threshold for a meaningful pitching edge
Detroit's team OPS (.712) outpaces Toronto's (.682) and their team ERA (4.02) is marginally better than Toronto's (4.10), giving Detroit a slight edge on both sides of the ball
Detroit is 11-7 (.611) ATS as an underdog this season, showing strong value at their current -131 price which sits in the moderate favorite range