All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Baltimore Orioles
@
Washington Nationals
Date
Sat, May 16
Time
8:05 PM
Venue
Nationals Park
Spread
Nationals ML
Odds
-110
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Nationals ML
-110 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Washington gets the lean on the strength of Cavalli's ERA advantage over Bassitt and a superior season-long ATS record, but the near-even moneyline, Washington's mediocre home ATS mark, and Baltimore's strong underdog ATS record keep this firmly in LEAN territory rather than a confident PICK.
Key Factors
Nationals ATS overall 27-18 (.600) vs Orioles 20-25 (.444) — a 16-percentage-point edge in covering
Nationals ATS last 10 at 7-3 vs Orioles 6-4 — Washington running hotter against the number
Cavalli ERA 4.02 vs Bassitt ERA 5.21 — a 1.19 ERA delta favoring the home starter
Nationals team OPS .729 vs Orioles .729 — Washington offense outpaces Baltimore (.729 vs .690 OPS, .241 vs .230 BA, 239 vs 195 runs scored)